The danger of currency overvaluation

03/09/2020 in finance, macroeconomics, japan using tags 2020, macroeconomics, economic death spiral

What happens during a stock market sell-off like the one we are experiencing today, when equity valuations have past the peak? Most importantly, what is currently happening to the bond market, which is in my opinion, much more important that the stock market. Sadly the world may be entering a time where it will transition towards negative growth for the next few years. The drop in interest rates is effectively “pricing in” the future of little to no growth here in the US, and I am noticing this in the bond markets of different places. Read more

I wish I didn't know

02/28/2020 in prediction, finance using tags predicting the future sucks

What is financial advice? Should you even listen to other people’s advice if you have no understanding of the fundamental concepts surrounding finance? Every market “expert” will tell you that you should never time the market. They’re just training you to be their next bagholder. That’s all that advice really means. At this point, it’s a race to see who will be left with the bags when it comes to buying into a recession. Read more

My farewell letter

02/15/2020 in technology, freedom, full disclosure using tags voluntary self-termination

On August 21st, I decided I didn’t want to have it anymore. I was tired of feeling guilty, so I got myself fired on purpose in the worst way I could imagine so that I could convince myself that I would never be rehired again [sic: sounds stupid huh?]. I did not want to quit either or look for a similar job, I decided to just give it all up. I still am quite depressed knowing what I’ve helped create, even if my contributions are only a fraction of the whole. Read more

2020 - The energy and manufacturing decade

02/10/2020 in finance, economics, geopolitics using tags 2020, macroeconomics, export economy

Well, I hope I’m wrong for my sake, but I do believe that the US is at a turning point from a macroeconomic perspective. The US dollar is too strong compared to the other currencies, all while it runs a trade deficit. We’re starting to realize that it is very difficult to keep a cap on technology exports since ideas move faster than traded goods do. It typically takes 2-3 years for a competing company in another nation to catch up on tech. Read more

A good introductory course on finance

02/09/2020 in finance using tags shiller, financial markets, how to raise your kids so they don't go broke

So, take my information with a grain of salt. But this is how I personally think when it comes to finance. This is how I operate, but it is by no means a recommendation for how everyone should operate, since that would cause many other macroeconomic problems that I won’t go into detail here. Now, on with the blog post. So, are you a good investor? If so, by all means, take as much leverage as you can handle, you’ll be rich in no time. Read more