economics on Aaron Tokhy's Homepage

economics on Aaron Tokhy's Homepage http://aaron.tokhy.me/categories/economics/ Recent content in economics on Aaron Tokhy's Homepage Hugo -- gohugo.io aaron <at> tokhy <dot> me (Aaron Tokhy) aaron <at> tokhy <dot> me (Aaron Tokhy) Tue, 09 Jun 2020 00:00:00 +0000 The Great Dollar short squeeze http://aaron.tokhy.me/blog/2020/06/09/the-great-dollar-short-squeeze/ Tue, 09 Jun 2020 00:00:00 +0000 aaron <at> tokhy <dot> me (Aaron Tokhy) http://aaron.tokhy.me/blog/2020/06/09/the-great-dollar-short-squeeze/ What we are seeing is what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. The immovable object is the growing amounts of debt, while the unstoppable force is the degree of money printing to satisfy that debt. The dollar short squeeze will persist for sometime until we decide to “get back to work”, causing pretty much everything to slowly appreciate in value, even depreciating assets like used cars! Honestly this is the last opportunity to buy a cheap/imported used clunker! Zero growth economy with currency inflation http://aaron.tokhy.me/blog/2020/05/18/zero-growth-economy-with-currency-inflation/ Mon, 18 May 2020 00:00:00 +0000 aaron <at> tokhy <dot> me (Aaron Tokhy) http://aaron.tokhy.me/blog/2020/05/18/zero-growth-economy-with-currency-inflation/ After COVID-19 battered the stock market, the stock and bond markets have been eeriely calm. The stock market was already overpriced before the pandemic, and interest rates were recovering. The world economy was vulnerable as interest rate yields were already low across developed nations. COVID-19 took away whatever buffer the developed world had left. If interest rates dip further, the US economy can enter a debt hole that would be difficult to crawl out of, similar to the situation Japan and the EU has faced. Between a rock and a hard place http://aaron.tokhy.me/blog/2020/04/07/between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place/ Tue, 07 Apr 2020 00:00:00 +0000 aaron <at> tokhy <dot> me (Aaron Tokhy) http://aaron.tokhy.me/blog/2020/04/07/between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place/ We are in a turning point. Option 1: Accept a lost decade, and accept negative interest rates (give up and accept permanent deflation) This option involves a slow population decline and an aging population. Wealth inequality remains. The rich remain rich and the poor remain poor. Opportunity pretty much dies in this scenario. GDP does not increase, nor does it decrease. Taxes reach their peak value, ensuring that the labor market remains efficient. Disaster - Bad star http://aaron.tokhy.me/blog/2020/04/06/disaster-bad-star/ Mon, 06 Apr 2020 00:00:00 +0000 aaron <at> tokhy <dot> me (Aaron Tokhy) http://aaron.tokhy.me/blog/2020/04/06/disaster-bad-star/ “Time in the market” vs “timing the market”? I call BS. You can time the market, and I just did. Anyone who regurgitates that phrase is unaware of how capitalism really works, and the theory behind price action. If you see a meteor falling from the sky, are you bullish or bearish? Technically the meteor already crashed last month, but what are the ramifications? What hasn’t happened yet? A huge wave of defaults, zeroing out stocks across the board. 2020 - The energy and manufacturing decade http://aaron.tokhy.me/blog/2020/02/10/2020-the-energy-and-manufacturing-decade/ Mon, 10 Feb 2020 00:00:00 +0000 aaron <at> tokhy <dot> me (Aaron Tokhy) http://aaron.tokhy.me/blog/2020/02/10/2020-the-energy-and-manufacturing-decade/ Well, I hope I’m wrong for my sake, but I do believe that the US is at a turning point from a macroeconomic perspective. The US dollar is too strong compared to the other currencies, all while it runs a trade deficit. We’re starting to realize that it is very difficult to keep a cap on technology exports since ideas move faster than traded goods do. It typically takes 2-3 years for a competing company in another nation to catch up on tech.