The Great Dollar short squeeze

06/09/2020 in finance, economics using tags unstoppable force, immovable object

What we are seeing is what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object. The immovable object is the growing amounts of debt, while the unstoppable force is the degree of money printing to satisfy that debt. The dollar short squeeze will persist for sometime until we decide to “get back to work”, causing pretty much everything to slowly appreciate in value, even depreciating assets like used cars! Honestly this is the last opportunity to buy a cheap/imported used clunker! Read more

Zero growth economy with currency inflation

05/18/2020 in finance, economics using tags zero growth economy

After COVID-19 battered the stock market, the stock and bond markets have been eeriely calm. The stock market was already overpriced before the pandemic, and interest rates were recovering. The world economy was vulnerable as interest rate yields were already low across developed nations. COVID-19 took away whatever buffer the developed world had left. If interest rates dip further, the US economy can enter a debt hole that would be difficult to crawl out of, similar to the situation Japan and the EU has faced. Read more

Between a rock and a hard place

04/07/2020 in finance, economics using tags rock, hard place, both options suck

We are in a turning point. Option 1: Accept a lost decade, and accept negative interest rates (give up and accept permanent deflation) This option involves a slow population decline and an aging population. Wealth inequality remains. The rich remain rich and the poor remain poor. Opportunity pretty much dies in this scenario. GDP does not increase, nor does it decrease. Taxes reach their peak value, ensuring that the labor market remains efficient. Read more

Disaster - Bad star

04/06/2020 in finance, economics using tags 2020, macroeconomics, export economy

“Time in the market” vs “timing the market”? I call BS. You can time the market, and I just did. Anyone who regurgitates that phrase is unaware of how capitalism really works, and the theory behind price action. If you see a meteor falling from the sky, are you bullish or bearish? Technically the meteor already crashed last month, but what are the ramifications? What hasn’t happened yet? A huge wave of defaults, zeroing out stocks across the board. Read more

401k withdrawals and the second gradual crash

03/28/2020 in ponzi exit scam, race to the bottom using tags economic death spiral

Note: I have self-quarantined for 14 days. Currently, this is day 4 of my quarantine. I will be giving myself 10 more days before I am confident that I am not ill so as to not unintentionally get anyone else sick. Not that that matters anyway, when the “free press” is killing people through their negligence by spreading misinformation on how to best protect yourself against it. My guess is that once a good chunk of the population starts dying, they will begin to advise people to start wearing masks once they become available. Read more